Published at: 17/07/2024 09:00 PM

(2001, November 2, 1983)

• During the US presidential elections , held on November 2, 1948**, GALLUP, ROPER and CROSSLEY, ** the three prestigious pollsters, named the governor of the state of New York, Thomas Dewey, the winner. All**** announced a large margin in their favor.
• The media offensive, since the beginning of the elections, had all the press headlines, special editions and radio and TV spaces ready to celebrate Dewey's triumph.
• Despite being a moderate Republican, in the final stretch of the campaign, Dewey's advisors urged him to take a definitive offensive to give a KO to his contender Harry Truman, acting president of the United States.
• Likewise, in his speeches, Dewey took to himself the achievements of the administration of Democrat Franklin Delano Roosevelt on the Social Welfare State, full employment, the regularization of markets and tax reforms.
• Thus, the Republican Dewey, during the electoral race of 1948, believed himself, until a few minutes before receiving the final results, the virtual winner and guest of the White House, for four years and more.
• From the moment I cast the vote, Dewey gave instructions for his command to organize the celebrations of the victory, to put the champagne on ice, while he waited convinced for Truman's telegram acknowledging the defeat and congratulating him on his victory.
• The informational neurosis of the pollsters unexpectedly conceded the victory and they awarded a margin of 8 points in favor of Dewey, the winner with 46%, and Harry Truman, the loser with 38% of the votes.
• The polling war and the media offensive against Truman shook the Democratic campaign command**.** Until the last minute they seemed more certain of defeat than of victory.
• The moment of truth:
• Although George Gallup, owner of the polling company and a stubborn triumphalist, said that states not scrutinized in official bulletins would sweep Truman away, that was not the case.
• At the stroke of midnight, Truman had a 1,200,000 vote advantage. However, the Republican Party's campaign manager, Herbert Bronwell, broke into the ballroom and announced the victory in advance. They began to uncork the bottles.
• At four in the morning, when euphoria began to give way to dismay, the announcers, especially Kalterborn, repeated that it “didn't fit in their minds” that the president of the United States could be re-elected.
• When the partial results were clear, “the loser in all the polls” won because of the decisive vote of farmers and peasants. They favored Truman in gratitude for the agrarian policies of his predecessor F.D. Roosevelt. A hit for professional forecasters.
• The context:
• In conclusion, the real winner of the 1948 elections in the United States was the late F.D. Roosevelt, of whom Truman was an unexpected successor and, therefore, an accidental president.
• In fact, it was Roosevelt's legacy that helped to lift the United States out of the pit of the Great Depression of 1929 caused by the Wall Street Crash (bank fraud), through New Deal policies (market regularization).
• This meant ****the equitable distribution of tax revenues for free health and education programs, full employment policies and the fight against poverty.

Mazo News Team