JP Morgan reduces economic growth forecast for Argentina to 1.5% in 2026

Published at: 29/09/2026 09:02 AM

JP Morgan reduced its economic growth forecasts for Argentina from 2.7% to 1.5% for the year 2026, while warning international markets about the risk of the South American nation entering a phase of technical recession due to the deterioration of its macroeconomic indicators.

In a report addressed to its clients entitled “Argentina: Taking a Break”, the banking firm suggested reducing positions in local currency and avoiding taking new risks in the Argentine financial market. “The recommendation for investors is to sell their positions in pesos and not risk more for now,” said the private entity when analyzing the instability of debt securities and the foreign exchange market in the southern nation.

The analysis also substantiated this contraction after the 2.9% decline experienced in economic activity during the month of July, a figure that represents the worst performance recorded in the country since the COVID-19 pandemic. The publication also highlighted that the country risk indicator surpassed the 700 basis point barrier, reflecting a marked gap compared to other countries in the region such as Chile, whose levels are close to 100 points.

The international bank's warning coincides with a scenario characterized by the continuous fall in the price of Argentine sovereign bonds and a rise in the parallel dollar rate. Despite the fact that the monthly inflation rate has shown slight slowdowns, economic reports continue to warn of the sustained contraction in formal private employment and the loss of the population's purchasing power.

Mazo News Team